How the numbers look
Here are some of the fiscal realities:
- In Fiscal Year 2025, the U.S. government collected about $195 billion in customs duties (tariffs).
- Some independent analyses project that tariffs announced by the administration could raise about $2.5 trillion over the period 2026-2035.
- A calculation by the nonpartisan group suggests that if the $2,000 payment were made to Americans earning under $100,000, the cost would be around $300 billion.
- Another analysis noted that although tariffs raise revenue, they also generate economic costs (higher prices for consumers, slower growth), and therefore net fiscal benefit is lower than the gross collections.
So while tariff revenue is non-trivial, the cost of a broad $2,000 payment program could approach or exceed what is available (or at least what can safely be assumed to be available).
