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New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know

June 22, 2026 · Personal Finance
An editorial gouache illustration of a stylized stamp with a corner piece separated, symbolizing tax deductions on benefits.
A Social Security check with a torn tax corner illustrates how taxes impact your retirement benefits.

Taxes and Your Increased Benefits

One of the most persistent and frustrating surprises for new retirees is discovering that the federal government taxes Social Security benefits. What makes this taxation particularly aggressive during periods of high inflation is that the income thresholds triggering these taxes are not indexed for inflation. They have remained completely static since they were enacted decades ago.

The Internal Revenue Service uses a formula called “provisional income” (sometimes called combined income) to determine how much of your benefit faces taxation. You calculate your provisional income by taking your Adjusted Gross Income, adding any nontaxable interest (such as municipal bond interest), and then adding exactly 50 percent of your Social Security benefits.

If you file your taxes as an individual, a provisional income between $25,000 and $34,000 means up to 50 percent of your benefit may be taxable. If your provisional income exceeds $34,000, up to 85 percent of your benefit becomes taxable. For married couples filing jointly, the 50 percent threshold sits between $32,000 and $44,000, while incomes above $44,000 trigger the 85 percent taxation bracket.

Because these thresholds never change, a generous COLA acts as a double-edged sword. As your Social Security payments increase to keep pace with inflation, that extra income automatically drives up your provisional income. This phenomenon frequently pushes retirees over the $34,000 or $44,000 limits, subjecting a larger portion of their benefits to federal income tax. Managing this dynamic requires intentional tax planning.

As Ed Slott advises, proactive tax planning allows you to control your tax brackets. Many retirees execute strategic Roth conversions during years when their income dips, moving funds from tax-deferred IRAs into tax-free Roth IRAs. While you pay taxes on the converted amount today, any future withdrawals from that Roth IRA will not increase your provisional income. This strategy helps shield your future Social Security benefits from taxation, allowing you to keep more of your COLA.

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2 comments on “New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know”

  1. Ralph says:
    July 2, 2026 at 12:53 am

    The cost of Medicare always eats up any raise and then some.

    Reply
  2. Pete says:
    June 29, 2026 at 12:19 am

    3.8% would be a $131/mo increase for me!! Nice!

    Reply
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