What must happen for it to become real?
The proposal is far from automatic, and several steps are required for the payments to happen:
- Legislation: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the administration “needs legislation” to distribute such dividends.
- Defining eligibility and mechanism: Key details are not yet set—who qualifies, what the income caps are, whether children count, and how the payment is delivered (check, rebate, tax credit).
- Ensuring sufficient funds: The payment must be backed by tariff revenue (or other funding) to make sense fiscally.
- Legal risk: Some of the tariffs that would fund these payments are under legal challenge. A court decision could force refunds or limit revenue.
- Budget impact: Congress and the administration must consider how the payment affects deficits, borrowing, and other federal priorities.
