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New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know

June 22, 2026 · Personal Finance
Flow diagram showing how Medicare Part B premiums are deducted from Social Security benefits before reaching the bank.
This diagram shows how Medicare Part B deductions reduce your Social Security benefit to a net deposit.

How Your Medicare Premiums Intersect With Your Raise

For the vast majority of retirees, Social Security benefits and Medicare Part B premiums are permanently linked. When you enroll in Medicare Part B, the federal government automatically deducts your monthly premium from your Social Security check before the funds ever reach your bank account. Because of this structural connection, any increase in your Social Security benefit must outpace the annual increase in Medicare premiums for you to feel a positive difference in your budget.

In 2026, the standard Medicare Part B premium is $202.90 per month, which represented a nearly $18 increase from the 2025 premium of $185.00. Healthcare inflation traditionally runs higher than general consumer inflation. If the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announces another significant premium hike for 2027, that increase will consume a portion—or in some rare cases, the entirety—of your COLA. For instance, if your COLA provides an extra $50 a month, but your Medicare Part B premium rises by $20 a month, your net increase drops to $30.

Fortunately, federal law provides a safety net known as the “hold harmless” provision. This rule guarantees that your Medicare Part B premium increase cannot exceed the dollar amount of your Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.

If you receive a very small Social Security benefit, the hold harmless provision prevents a rising Medicare premium from actually reducing your net monthly check. Your benefit will simply remain flat. However, you do not qualify for hold harmless protection if you are a new Medicare enrollee, if you pay your premiums directly rather than having them deducted from Social Security, or if you are subject to high-income surcharges.

Those high-income surcharges—officially called the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA)—add another layer of complexity. Medicare uses a two-year lookback period to determine your premium.

Therefore, your 2027 Medicare Part B and Part D premiums will be based on the Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) you report on your 2025 tax return. If selling a home, executing large Roth conversions, or taking substantial required minimum distributions pushed your income into a higher tier in 2025, you will pay significantly more for Medicare in 2027, regardless of your Social Security COLA.

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16 comments on “New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know”

  1. Robert Thompson says:
    August 22, 2026 at 9:59 pm

    The only good thing I have to say is I’m more and more grateful for the Blue Cross- Blue Shield insurance that, as a former VA employee, I carried over into retirement. Comparing BCBS with Medicare plan B, the latter is a ripoff.

    Reply
  2. Fred fierke says:
    August 22, 2026 at 6:51 pm

    3.8 per cent of nothing is still nothing

    Reply
  3. Randy says:
    August 16, 2026 at 5:20 pm

    Right on .They don’t get social security and the right wing lies about it to keep us divided by their ignorant base that don’t know any better since they are told to stay stupid and not research or think for themselves

    Reply
  4. Mary Betts says:
    August 12, 2026 at 1:46 am

    So we get a raise in social security but then Medicare raises its prices so SS is a very little increase. How about we make Congress paypack the monies they STOLE from Social Security and left WORTHLESS IOU’s in its place? Plus interest, it might make Social Security solvent. And then ahow about Congress has to pay into Social Security the way other people HAVE TO. How about any time they make a new rule, they have to follow it also and not be exempt! I’d be for all of that!

    Reply
  5. Mary says:
    August 12, 2026 at 12:26 am

    So we get a raise but Medicare immediately raises what they pull out. Your ‘raise’ is drastically reduced. How about we do 2 things: Make Congress pay back (with interest) the Worthless IOU’s they left when they Stole funds from Social Security. And make Congress pay into Social Security the way the people who work have to. Just a thought.

    Reply
  6. Mary says:
    August 12, 2026 at 12:20 am

    You get a bump in social security and Medicare immediately raises you costs so how much do you really realize in the SS gain? If they made Congress pay back all the WORTHLESS IOU’s they left when they stole monies from Social Security, it would put social security on solid financial ground. But they won’t pay it back yet keep raising their (Congress’) salaries ! And how about if Congress had to pay into social security instead of exempting themselves from it?

    Reply
  7. Gerald Howse says:
    August 11, 2026 at 9:47 pm

    retired people continue to get screwed. the lying piece of shit government knows inflation is well above 10 percent but they continue to stick it to us.

    Reply
  8. Carol Lilja says:
    July 23, 2026 at 10:31 pm

    Illegals don’t get SSA benefits. You’re falling for the lies that keep us divided. Do your research.

    Reply
  9. Tommy Kelley says:
    July 23, 2026 at 2:21 am

    Because Medicare is a scam just like social security

    Reply
  10. James Singleton says:
    July 17, 2026 at 2:49 pm

    All other like Medicaid is taken away cause the raise puts you over the guide lines so why not raise the guide lines so we can keep our medicaid

    Reply
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