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New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know

June 22, 2026 · Personal Finance
Infographic showing the Q3 months of July, August, and September used to calculate the official Social Security COLA.
This infographic shows how CPI-W data from July, August, and September determines the official COLA.

The Calculation: How Social Security Determines the Official Rate

While advocacy groups release monthly predictions, the official adjustment relies on a strict, legally mandated timeline. The Social Security Administration does not look at inflation across the entire calendar year. Instead, they focus exclusively on the third quarter.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics gathers CPI-W data for the months of July, August, and September. In mid-October, the government averages the data from these three months and compares it to the third-quarter average from the previous year. If the current year’s average is higher, the percentage difference becomes the official COLA for the upcoming year. If prices remain flat or decrease (deflation), benefits stay exactly the same—the law prohibits Social Security from reducing benefits due to deflation.

Once the government announces the official rate in October, the Social Security Administration applies the adjustment to benefits payable in January. Because Social Security pays benefits a month in arrears, the increase officially takes effect in December but shows up in the payment you receive in January 2027.

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16 comments on “New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know”

  1. Robert Thompson says:
    August 22, 2026 at 9:59 pm

    The only good thing I have to say is I’m more and more grateful for the Blue Cross- Blue Shield insurance that, as a former VA employee, I carried over into retirement. Comparing BCBS with Medicare plan B, the latter is a ripoff.

    Reply
  2. Fred fierke says:
    August 22, 2026 at 6:51 pm

    3.8 per cent of nothing is still nothing

    Reply
  3. Randy says:
    August 16, 2026 at 5:20 pm

    Right on .They don’t get social security and the right wing lies about it to keep us divided by their ignorant base that don’t know any better since they are told to stay stupid and not research or think for themselves

    Reply
  4. Mary Betts says:
    August 12, 2026 at 1:46 am

    So we get a raise in social security but then Medicare raises its prices so SS is a very little increase. How about we make Congress paypack the monies they STOLE from Social Security and left WORTHLESS IOU’s in its place? Plus interest, it might make Social Security solvent. And then ahow about Congress has to pay into Social Security the way other people HAVE TO. How about any time they make a new rule, they have to follow it also and not be exempt! I’d be for all of that!

    Reply
  5. Mary says:
    August 12, 2026 at 12:26 am

    So we get a raise but Medicare immediately raises what they pull out. Your ‘raise’ is drastically reduced. How about we do 2 things: Make Congress pay back (with interest) the Worthless IOU’s they left when they Stole funds from Social Security. And make Congress pay into Social Security the way the people who work have to. Just a thought.

    Reply
  6. Mary says:
    August 12, 2026 at 12:20 am

    You get a bump in social security and Medicare immediately raises you costs so how much do you really realize in the SS gain? If they made Congress pay back all the WORTHLESS IOU’s they left when they stole monies from Social Security, it would put social security on solid financial ground. But they won’t pay it back yet keep raising their (Congress’) salaries ! And how about if Congress had to pay into social security instead of exempting themselves from it?

    Reply
  7. Gerald Howse says:
    August 11, 2026 at 9:47 pm

    retired people continue to get screwed. the lying piece of shit government knows inflation is well above 10 percent but they continue to stick it to us.

    Reply
  8. Carol Lilja says:
    July 23, 2026 at 10:31 pm

    Illegals don’t get SSA benefits. You’re falling for the lies that keep us divided. Do your research.

    Reply
  9. Tommy Kelley says:
    July 23, 2026 at 2:21 am

    Because Medicare is a scam just like social security

    Reply
  10. James Singleton says:
    July 17, 2026 at 2:49 pm

    All other like Medicaid is taken away cause the raise puts you over the guide lines so why not raise the guide lines so we can keep our medicaid

    Reply
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