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New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know

June 22, 2026 · Personal Finance
Infographic showing the Q3 months of July, August, and September used to calculate the official Social Security COLA.
This infographic shows how CPI-W data from July, August, and September determines the official COLA.

The Calculation: How Social Security Determines the Official Rate

While advocacy groups release monthly predictions, the official adjustment relies on a strict, legally mandated timeline. The Social Security Administration does not look at inflation across the entire calendar year. Instead, they focus exclusively on the third quarter.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics gathers CPI-W data for the months of July, August, and September. In mid-October, the government averages the data from these three months and compares it to the third-quarter average from the previous year. If the current year’s average is higher, the percentage difference becomes the official COLA for the upcoming year. If prices remain flat or decrease (deflation), benefits stay exactly the same—the law prohibits Social Security from reducing benefits due to deflation.

Once the government announces the official rate in October, the Social Security Administration applies the adjustment to benefits payable in January. Because Social Security pays benefits a month in arrears, the increase officially takes effect in December but shows up in the payment you receive in January 2027.

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9 comments on “New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know”

  1. Carol Lilja says:
    July 23, 2026 at 10:31 pm

    Illegals don’t get SSA benefits. You’re falling for the lies that keep us divided. Do your research.

    Reply
  2. Tommy Kelley says:
    July 23, 2026 at 2:21 am

    Because Medicare is a scam just like social security

    Reply
  3. James Singleton says:
    July 17, 2026 at 2:49 pm

    All other like Medicaid is taken away cause the raise puts you over the guide lines so why not raise the guide lines so we can keep our medicaid

    Reply
  4. Judy says:
    July 16, 2026 at 10:13 am

    I woin’t get a raise after Medicare takes money from me for medical insurance for me and all the illegals we have to pay for!!@

    Reply
  5. Cheryl Ann Biggs says:
    July 4, 2026 at 5:12 pm

    I get a raise, then Medicare takes a swipe out of it for my medical insurance, which sliced some of the benefits. So…why is Medicare charging me more for less insurance?

    Reply
  6. Nilly says:
    July 4, 2026 at 4:44 pm

    Nope Medicare will go up 4.2% so you loose

    Reply
  7. Michael Amico says:
    July 2, 2026 at 7:43 pm

    That’s great but they went up on my Medicare premium and I lost $350/month on my take home pay. How come?

    Reply
  8. Ralph says:
    July 2, 2026 at 12:53 am

    The cost of Medicare always eats up any raise and then some.

    Reply
  9. Pete says:
    June 29, 2026 at 12:19 am

    3.8% would be a $131/mo increase for me!! Nice!

    Reply
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