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New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know

June 22, 2026 · Personal Finance
Flow diagram showing how Medicare Part B premiums are deducted from Social Security benefits before reaching the bank.
This diagram shows how Medicare Part B deductions reduce your Social Security benefit to a net deposit.

How Your Medicare Premiums Intersect With Your Raise

For the vast majority of retirees, Social Security benefits and Medicare Part B premiums are permanently linked. When you enroll in Medicare Part B, the federal government automatically deducts your monthly premium from your Social Security check before the funds ever reach your bank account. Because of this structural connection, any increase in your Social Security benefit must outpace the annual increase in Medicare premiums for you to feel a positive difference in your budget.

In 2026, the standard Medicare Part B premium is $202.90 per month, which represented a nearly $18 increase from the 2025 premium of $185.00. Healthcare inflation traditionally runs higher than general consumer inflation. If the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announces another significant premium hike for 2027, that increase will consume a portion—or in some rare cases, the entirety—of your COLA. For instance, if your COLA provides an extra $50 a month, but your Medicare Part B premium rises by $20 a month, your net increase drops to $30.

Fortunately, federal law provides a safety net known as the “hold harmless” provision. This rule guarantees that your Medicare Part B premium increase cannot exceed the dollar amount of your Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.

If you receive a very small Social Security benefit, the hold harmless provision prevents a rising Medicare premium from actually reducing your net monthly check. Your benefit will simply remain flat. However, you do not qualify for hold harmless protection if you are a new Medicare enrollee, if you pay your premiums directly rather than having them deducted from Social Security, or if you are subject to high-income surcharges.

Those high-income surcharges—officially called the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA)—add another layer of complexity. Medicare uses a two-year lookback period to determine your premium.

Therefore, your 2027 Medicare Part B and Part D premiums will be based on the Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) you report on your 2025 tax return. If selling a home, executing large Roth conversions, or taking substantial required minimum distributions pushed your income into a higher tier in 2025, you will pay significantly more for Medicare in 2027, regardless of your Social Security COLA.

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20 comments on “New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know”

  1. Paul L Hevner says:
    September 28, 2026 at 5:47 pm

    3.8% COLA is a disgrace to those on SSI.
    You get a whopping extra $79 and medicare increases its monthly requirement.
    After that the $79 is shrunk down to if your lucky $10,.
    Quit wasting the money we put in from our salaries. and increase the COLA so we can keep up with inflation and not give it to Illegals…

    Depressed and frustrated senior citizen…………..

    Reply
  2. connie hughes says:
    September 22, 2026 at 7:47 am

    I’ll get about $154 more

    Reply
  3. Ryan Vitali says:
    September 21, 2026 at 4:35 pm

    COLA is so broken. The cost of gas has made almost a 20% increase and cost of food has nearly 30% increase on some items. 3% is not even a scratch on the surface. Its hard enough to get SSI but to work your whole life just to struggle because the government can’t do basic math is getting really old. COLA is suppose to reflect the Cost of Living. Ao if cost of living makes a 20% increase that year the SSI and VA Disability benefits should follow suit. Quit punishing the people who the government has lied to the longest.

    Reply
  4. William Brown says:
    September 14, 2026 at 1:49 pm

    Yeah, we appreciate everything we get, but this still is not enough for the older people

    Reply
  5. Robert Thompson says:
    August 22, 2026 at 9:59 pm

    The only good thing I have to say is I’m more and more grateful for the Blue Cross- Blue Shield insurance that, as a former VA employee, I carried over into retirement. Comparing BCBS with Medicare plan B, the latter is a ripoff.

    Reply
  6. Fred fierke says:
    August 22, 2026 at 6:51 pm

    3.8 per cent of nothing is still nothing

    Reply
  7. Randy says:
    August 16, 2026 at 5:20 pm

    Right on .They don’t get social security and the right wing lies about it to keep us divided by their ignorant base that don’t know any better since they are told to stay stupid and not research or think for themselves

    Reply
  8. Mary Betts says:
    August 12, 2026 at 1:46 am

    So we get a raise in social security but then Medicare raises its prices so SS is a very little increase. How about we make Congress paypack the monies they STOLE from Social Security and left WORTHLESS IOU’s in its place? Plus interest, it might make Social Security solvent. And then ahow about Congress has to pay into Social Security the way other people HAVE TO. How about any time they make a new rule, they have to follow it also and not be exempt! I’d be for all of that!

    Reply
  9. Mary says:
    August 12, 2026 at 12:26 am

    So we get a raise but Medicare immediately raises what they pull out. Your ‘raise’ is drastically reduced. How about we do 2 things: Make Congress pay back (with interest) the Worthless IOU’s they left when they Stole funds from Social Security. And make Congress pay into Social Security the way the people who work have to. Just a thought.

    Reply
  10. Mary says:
    August 12, 2026 at 12:20 am

    You get a bump in social security and Medicare immediately raises you costs so how much do you really realize in the SS gain? If they made Congress pay back all the WORTHLESS IOU’s they left when they stole monies from Social Security, it would put social security on solid financial ground. But they won’t pay it back yet keep raising their (Congress’) salaries ! And how about if Congress had to pay into social security instead of exempting themselves from it?

    Reply
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