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New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know

June 22, 2026 · Personal Finance
Flow diagram showing how Medicare Part B premiums are deducted from Social Security benefits before reaching the bank.
This diagram shows how Medicare Part B deductions reduce your Social Security benefit to a net deposit.

How Your Medicare Premiums Intersect With Your Raise

For the vast majority of retirees, Social Security benefits and Medicare Part B premiums are permanently linked. When you enroll in Medicare Part B, the federal government automatically deducts your monthly premium from your Social Security check before the funds ever reach your bank account. Because of this structural connection, any increase in your Social Security benefit must outpace the annual increase in Medicare premiums for you to feel a positive difference in your budget.

In 2026, the standard Medicare Part B premium is $202.90 per month, which represented a nearly $18 increase from the 2025 premium of $185.00. Healthcare inflation traditionally runs higher than general consumer inflation. If the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announces another significant premium hike for 2027, that increase will consume a portion—or in some rare cases, the entirety—of your COLA. For instance, if your COLA provides an extra $50 a month, but your Medicare Part B premium rises by $20 a month, your net increase drops to $30.

Fortunately, federal law provides a safety net known as the “hold harmless” provision. This rule guarantees that your Medicare Part B premium increase cannot exceed the dollar amount of your Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.

If you receive a very small Social Security benefit, the hold harmless provision prevents a rising Medicare premium from actually reducing your net monthly check. Your benefit will simply remain flat. However, you do not qualify for hold harmless protection if you are a new Medicare enrollee, if you pay your premiums directly rather than having them deducted from Social Security, or if you are subject to high-income surcharges.

Those high-income surcharges—officially called the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA)—add another layer of complexity. Medicare uses a two-year lookback period to determine your premium.

Therefore, your 2027 Medicare Part B and Part D premiums will be based on the Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) you report on your 2025 tax return. If selling a home, executing large Roth conversions, or taking substantial required minimum distributions pushed your income into a higher tier in 2025, you will pay significantly more for Medicare in 2027, regardless of your Social Security COLA.

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9 comments on “New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know”

  1. Carol Lilja says:
    July 23, 2026 at 10:31 pm

    Illegals don’t get SSA benefits. You’re falling for the lies that keep us divided. Do your research.

    Reply
  2. Tommy Kelley says:
    July 23, 2026 at 2:21 am

    Because Medicare is a scam just like social security

    Reply
  3. James Singleton says:
    July 17, 2026 at 2:49 pm

    All other like Medicaid is taken away cause the raise puts you over the guide lines so why not raise the guide lines so we can keep our medicaid

    Reply
  4. Judy says:
    July 16, 2026 at 10:13 am

    I woin’t get a raise after Medicare takes money from me for medical insurance for me and all the illegals we have to pay for!!@

    Reply
  5. Cheryl Ann Biggs says:
    July 4, 2026 at 5:12 pm

    I get a raise, then Medicare takes a swipe out of it for my medical insurance, which sliced some of the benefits. So…why is Medicare charging me more for less insurance?

    Reply
  6. Nilly says:
    July 4, 2026 at 4:44 pm

    Nope Medicare will go up 4.2% so you loose

    Reply
  7. Michael Amico says:
    July 2, 2026 at 7:43 pm

    That’s great but they went up on my Medicare premium and I lost $350/month on my take home pay. How come?

    Reply
  8. Ralph says:
    July 2, 2026 at 12:53 am

    The cost of Medicare always eats up any raise and then some.

    Reply
  9. Pete says:
    June 29, 2026 at 12:19 am

    3.8% would be a $131/mo increase for me!! Nice!

    Reply
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