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New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know

June 22, 2026 · Personal Finance
A conceptual diagram comparing the CPI-W and CPI-E inflation metrics, highlighting different spending category weights.
This infographic compares how CPI-W and CPI-E weigh expenses like healthcare, housing, and transportation.

Comparing Inflation Metrics: CPI-W vs. CPI-E

The feeling that the COLA does not accurately reflect senior spending is not just an illusion; it is a structural reality of how the government calculates the adjustment. By law, the Social Security Administration must use the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

Senior advocacy groups have lobbied for years to switch the calculation to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which tracks the spending habits of Americans aged 62 and older.

Understanding the difference between these two metrics helps clarify why your cost of living may feel disconnected from your annual adjustment.

Feature CPI-W (Current Standard) CPI-E (Proposed Standard)
Target Demographic Urban workers and clerical staff (typically younger). Americans aged 62 and older.
Healthcare Weighting Lower. Younger workers spend less on medical care. Significantly higher. Accurately reflects rising Medicare and out-of-pocket costs.
Housing Weighting Moderate. Higher. Seniors spend a larger percentage of fixed incomes on housing and utilities.
Transportation Weighting Higher. Factors in daily commuting, gas, and vehicle purchases. Lower. Retirees commute less frequently.
Resulting COLA Often lags behind the actual inflation experienced by retirees. Historically results in a slightly higher, more accurate benefit increase (typically 0.2% to 0.3% higher).

Until Congress passes legislation changing the formula, the CPI-W remains the law of the land. You must plan your budget expecting the official adjustment to slightly underrepresent your actual healthcare and housing inflation.

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20 comments on “New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know”

  1. Paul L Hevner says:
    September 28, 2026 at 5:47 pm

    3.8% COLA is a disgrace to those on SSI.
    You get a whopping extra $79 and medicare increases its monthly requirement.
    After that the $79 is shrunk down to if your lucky $10,.
    Quit wasting the money we put in from our salaries. and increase the COLA so we can keep up with inflation and not give it to Illegals…

    Depressed and frustrated senior citizen…………..

    Reply
  2. connie hughes says:
    September 22, 2026 at 7:47 am

    I’ll get about $154 more

    Reply
  3. Ryan Vitali says:
    September 21, 2026 at 4:35 pm

    COLA is so broken. The cost of gas has made almost a 20% increase and cost of food has nearly 30% increase on some items. 3% is not even a scratch on the surface. Its hard enough to get SSI but to work your whole life just to struggle because the government can’t do basic math is getting really old. COLA is suppose to reflect the Cost of Living. Ao if cost of living makes a 20% increase that year the SSI and VA Disability benefits should follow suit. Quit punishing the people who the government has lied to the longest.

    Reply
  4. William Brown says:
    September 14, 2026 at 1:49 pm

    Yeah, we appreciate everything we get, but this still is not enough for the older people

    Reply
  5. Robert Thompson says:
    August 22, 2026 at 9:59 pm

    The only good thing I have to say is I’m more and more grateful for the Blue Cross- Blue Shield insurance that, as a former VA employee, I carried over into retirement. Comparing BCBS with Medicare plan B, the latter is a ripoff.

    Reply
  6. Fred fierke says:
    August 22, 2026 at 6:51 pm

    3.8 per cent of nothing is still nothing

    Reply
  7. Randy says:
    August 16, 2026 at 5:20 pm

    Right on .They don’t get social security and the right wing lies about it to keep us divided by their ignorant base that don’t know any better since they are told to stay stupid and not research or think for themselves

    Reply
  8. Mary Betts says:
    August 12, 2026 at 1:46 am

    So we get a raise in social security but then Medicare raises its prices so SS is a very little increase. How about we make Congress paypack the monies they STOLE from Social Security and left WORTHLESS IOU’s in its place? Plus interest, it might make Social Security solvent. And then ahow about Congress has to pay into Social Security the way other people HAVE TO. How about any time they make a new rule, they have to follow it also and not be exempt! I’d be for all of that!

    Reply
  9. Mary says:
    August 12, 2026 at 12:26 am

    So we get a raise but Medicare immediately raises what they pull out. Your ‘raise’ is drastically reduced. How about we do 2 things: Make Congress pay back (with interest) the Worthless IOU’s they left when they Stole funds from Social Security. And make Congress pay into Social Security the way the people who work have to. Just a thought.

    Reply
  10. Mary says:
    August 12, 2026 at 12:20 am

    You get a bump in social security and Medicare immediately raises you costs so how much do you really realize in the SS gain? If they made Congress pay back all the WORTHLESS IOU’s they left when they stole monies from Social Security, it would put social security on solid financial ground. But they won’t pay it back yet keep raising their (Congress’) salaries ! And how about if Congress had to pay into social security instead of exempting themselves from it?

    Reply
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