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New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know

June 22, 2026 · Personal Finance
Editorial illustration of an autumn leaf drifting in the wind next to a fluttering stack of paper, symbolizing uncertainty.
A leaf blowing above anchored papers illustrates how easily unpredictable economic shifts can disrupt retirement plans.

What Can Go Wrong

Relying too heavily on early predictions can lead to financial missteps. While a 3.8 percent forecast sounds promising, several factors can disrupt your expectations.

First, economic conditions change rapidly. If the Federal Reserve successfully cools the economy and inflation drops sharply during the summer months, the third-quarter data will come in lower than current projections. The final COLA announced in October could easily land closer to 2.5 or 3.0 percent. If you budget based on the higher prediction, you will face a shortfall come January.

Second, retirees frequently overestimate their net income by ignoring state taxes. While the federal government taxes Social Security based on provisional income, roughly ten states still tax Social Security benefits to varying degrees. Kiplinger regularly updates its state-by-state tax guides, which provide essential reading if you plan to relocate. Failing to factor state tax liabilities into your budget will leave you with less disposable income than you planned.

Finally, underestimating personal healthcare inflation remains a critical danger. Even if the COLA is robust, a new diagnosis requiring expensive tier-3 or tier-4 prescription drugs can decimate your monthly budget. You must plan for out-of-pocket medical maximums, not just baseline premiums.

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9 comments on “New COLA Predictions Are In – Here’s What Retirees Should Know”

  1. Carol Lilja says:
    July 23, 2026 at 10:31 pm

    Illegals don’t get SSA benefits. You’re falling for the lies that keep us divided. Do your research.

    Reply
  2. Tommy Kelley says:
    July 23, 2026 at 2:21 am

    Because Medicare is a scam just like social security

    Reply
  3. James Singleton says:
    July 17, 2026 at 2:49 pm

    All other like Medicaid is taken away cause the raise puts you over the guide lines so why not raise the guide lines so we can keep our medicaid

    Reply
  4. Judy says:
    July 16, 2026 at 10:13 am

    I woin’t get a raise after Medicare takes money from me for medical insurance for me and all the illegals we have to pay for!!@

    Reply
  5. Cheryl Ann Biggs says:
    July 4, 2026 at 5:12 pm

    I get a raise, then Medicare takes a swipe out of it for my medical insurance, which sliced some of the benefits. So…why is Medicare charging me more for less insurance?

    Reply
  6. Nilly says:
    July 4, 2026 at 4:44 pm

    Nope Medicare will go up 4.2% so you loose

    Reply
  7. Michael Amico says:
    July 2, 2026 at 7:43 pm

    That’s great but they went up on my Medicare premium and I lost $350/month on my take home pay. How come?

    Reply
  8. Ralph says:
    July 2, 2026 at 12:53 am

    The cost of Medicare always eats up any raise and then some.

    Reply
  9. Pete says:
    June 29, 2026 at 12:19 am

    3.8% would be a $131/mo increase for me!! Nice!

    Reply
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